中国的大国之路

CHINA IN THE WORLD ECONOMY

作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员 马丁•沃尔夫

China is a rapidly emerging economic superpower. Yet China is still far from a 中国是一个正在迅速崛起的经济超级大国。但它距离成为高收入国家仍有很长的一段high-income country. What does this novel combination mean for China itself and for its place in the world?

In setting out to address that question, we must start with the obvious point. A country with such a huge and growing impact on the world cannot ignore its effect on others. The defining characteristic of such a superpower is that it cannot expect to remain a free rider. What it does and does not do has consequences for the entire global system. As William Shakespeare might have said, China has achieved greatness and now has responsibility thrust upon it.

Defining China’s interests

China needs to develop a policy not just for its interaction with the global economic system, but also for the

development of that system. In doing so, it will have to start from a definition of its national interests, values and objectives. I would argue that China’s overwhelming national interest lies in maintaining a stable, peaceful and co-operative global political and economic environment. It is only in such an environment that China can be confident of maintaining rapid economic development.

How should China, as one of the world’s leading powers, seek to achieve that objective? Broadly, I would argue that this interest would be best secured via

路要走。对中国自身及其在世界上的地位而言，这一不寻常的组合意味着什么？

要解答这个问题，我们必须从显而易见的一点出发。一个对世界拥有巨大且越来越大影响的国家，不能忽视自己对其它国家的影响。这样一个超级大国的关键特征是，它不能指望继续“搭便车”。中国无论做什么与不做什么，都会对整个全球体系产生影响。套用威廉•莎士比亚(William Shakespear)的话说，中国已达到了伟大的境界，如今面对着随之而来的责任。界定中国的利益

中国需要研究出一套政策，不仅面向其与全球经济体系的互动，也服务于全球经济体系的发展。为此，它必须首先界定自己的国家利益、价值观与目标。我认为，中国至高无上的国家利益，在于维持稳定、和平与合作的全球政治与经济环境。只有在这样的环境中，中国才能有信心保持快速的经济发展。

作为全球领先大国之一的中国，应如何实现这一目标？我认为，概括地说，发展一套有规则可依的基于制度的全球体系，最能保障这一利益。我想围绕这个总目标探讨四大政策领

development of a rules-governed,

institutionally-based global system. With this general objective in mind, I want to discuss four principal areas of policy: finance; money; trade and direct

investment; and natural resources. This is not an exhaustive list, by any means. But these are some of the principal issues now 域：金融、货币、贸易与直接投资、以及自然资源。这并非一份全面的清单，但它们是中国如今面临的一些主要问题。

facing China.

Global finance

In the long run, China is likely to emerge as the most important player in the global financial system. Its objectives must be, first, to create a domestic financial system that is capable of supporting its own economic development; second, to help promote a global financial system that supports a rapidly growing and reasonably stable world economy; and, third, to protect the former – the domestic financial system – from the excesses of the latter – the global financial system. This is, in fact, a huge challenge, because of the complex

interaction between global and domestic finance.

I would argue that in achieving this complex reconciliation China’s policies should be guided by the following four broad principles.

First, the Chinese authorities should assume that in the long run, possibly as long as a generation, China’s financial system will not only be fully integrated into global finance, but is likely to emerge as one of its hubs.

Second, the transition to full

integration will be not just lengthy, but complex and fraught. For this reason, it will take some time and needs to be carefully orchestrated. An important step along the

全球金融

长期来看，中国可能成为全球金融体系最重要的参与者。它的目标必须是：首先，创造一个能够支持国内经济发展的国内金融体系；其次，帮助完善全球金融体系，使其支持世界经济的快速增长与平稳运行；第三，保护前者（国内金融体系），使其免受后者（全球金融体系）无节制行为的影响。考虑到国际与国内金融的复杂互动，这其实是一项巨大的挑战。

我认为，要实现这一复杂的平衡，中国的各项政策应以下述三大原则为指导。

首先，中国政府应该假定，长期而言（也许有一代人之久），中国的金融体系将不仅与全球金融完全整合，还可能发展成为它的中心之一。

其次，朝向“完全整合”的过渡将不仅漫长，而且错综复杂与充满危险。鉴于此，这将需要时间，而且要精心策划。允许私人资本——尤其是外国直接投资与组合投资资本——从中国流出，将是该过程中的重要一步。银行体

way will be to free the outflow of private capital from China, particularly foreign direct investment and portfolios capital. 系的一体化尤其危险，必须倍加小心地处理。

Full integration of banking systems is particularly dangerous and needs to be handled with much care.

Finally, it is strongly in China’s interests to support efforts to make the global financial system less unstable. China has been a full participant in the Group of 20’s discussion of financial sector reform, which have gone largely in the direction supported by China’s authorities: tighter regulation and higher capital requirements. China feels, with some reason, that its relatively cautious

approach to the regulation of the banking system has been vindicated by recent events. As a result, a degree of convergence of regulatory philosophy has occurred between China and the western powers, though full convergence has certainly not yet been achieved - and may never be.

Global money

Closely related to reform of global finance is reform of the global monetary system. Here, as I have noted, China is already an enormously important player. Again, China’s challenge is to reconcile its interests in domestic stability with those of a parallel global stability. Again, I would suggest a number of broad principles.

In the first place, China needs to recognise that its own policies towards the global monetary system have proved to be domestically destabilising. This is particularly true of exchange-rate intervention and reserve accumulation.

In the second place, China needs time to extricate itself from its distorted initial position. That is going to be quite

最后，支持加强全球金融体系稳定性的努力，绝对符合中国的利益。中国一直是20国集团(G20)金融业改革讨论的正式参与者，该讨论基本上朝着中国政府支持的方向迈进：收紧监管、提高资本金要求。中国觉得近期事件证明其相对谨慎的银行业监管方式是正确的，这似乎有点道理。因此，西方大国与中国的监管哲学出现了某种程度的趋同，尽管完全趋同显然尚未实现——也许永远不会实现。

全球货币

与全球金融改革密切相关的是全球货币体系的改革。关于这一点，我之前已经指出，中国已经成为该体系极为重要的参与者。在这里，中国的挑战仍是协调两方面的利益：一方面是国内稳定，另一方面是对应的全球稳定。同样，我将列出一系列大原则。

首先，中国需要认识到，它的全球货币体系政策，已证明不利于国内稳定。汇率干预与储备积累尤其证明了这一点。

其次，中国需要时间来摆脱其扭曲的初始处境。这将相当困难。一些关键要素必须结合起来：加速推动名义汇率的升值与资本流出的

difficult. The central elements will need to be a combination of accelerated

appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, with faster liberalisation of the capital outflow, a shift of disposable incomes towards households and better safety nets for the latter, to lower the enormous level 自由化进程；增加家庭的可支配收入、完善针对家庭的社保体系，以降低极高的预防性储蓄水平。

of precautionary savings.

In the third place, China needs to develop a strategy for reform of the global monetary system that fits with its interests in managing the interface between its domestic development and global stability. In doing so, it needs to recognise the reality that the accumulation of large claims on supposedly safe foreign liabilities must be matched by a

corresponding supply. Unfortunately, the global system seems able to generate such a supply only via the ultimately

self-defeating means of huge fiscal and external deficits in the US.

In the fourth place, China may wish to develop its own views of how the global monetary system should operate in the long run. It appears, however, that those views are likely to be in conflict with the dominant (though not universal) western consensus that the least bad system is one of freely floating exchange rates among large economies that possess domestic monetary autonomy, with monetary policy managed by independent inflation-targeting central banks. China and its partners may need to recognise a fundamental and enduring tension between their views.

Finally, given this impasse, it is in China’s interests to find a pragmatic accommodation via the discussions now occurring within the G20. Such an

accommodation would focus on indicators of disequilibrium, the methods and timetable

第三，中国需要研究出一项改革全球货币体系的战略，使其符合中国的利益，即在国内发展与全球稳定之间搞好协调。为此，中国必须认识到一个现实：要大量积累被认为安全的外国债务的债权，就必须要有与之对应的供给。不幸的是，全球体系似乎只能通过美国的巨额财政与外部赤字来产生这种供给，而这最终是一种自我毁灭的手段。

第四，中国也许希望发展自己对于全球货币体系长期应如何运行的观点。然而，这些观点似乎很可能会与主流（尽管并非普遍）的西方共识发生冲突。西方认为，相对而言缺点最少的体系是，大型经济体之间实行汇率自由浮动，这些经济体拥有国内货币自主权、货币政策由瞄准通胀目标的独立央行进行管理。中国和其经贸伙伴也许需要认识到，他们的观点存在根本且持久的对立。

最后，鉴于这种僵局，通过G20正在进行的讨论来找到一个务实的融通方案，是符合中国利益的。这种融通方案将聚焦失衡指标、调整的方法与时间表、对陷入困境国家慷慨且有效的流动性供给、以及国际货币基金组织(IMF)的治理改革——使其成为中国及其它新兴国家

of adjustment, generous and effective liquidity provision for countries in

difficulties and governance reforms in the International Monetary Fund, to make it a more legitimate and effective interlocutor for China and other emerging countries.

Global Trade and Investment

Trade has been China’s great success. 更为正当且有效的对话者。

全球贸易与投资

贸易一直是中国的巨大成功。中国即将成It is on its way to becoming the world’s most important trading entity. This makes China the natural successor of the US and, before that, the UK, as guardian of the open rules-based trading system. It is important, for this reason, that China abides by all the rules and principles of the system and play an important part in

developing it further. This raises several important issues.

First, China can try to play a role in bringing the interminable Doha round to some sort of conclusion, however limited.

Second, China has a rising interest in protecting its own intellectual property and, for this reason, a matching interest in ensuring its own adherence to these rules. Third, China will also have a growing interest in protecting its direct investment abroad. For this reason, it should promote stronger rules on protection of foreign investment. This is one of the most important direction for the World Trade Organisation.

Finally, as a global trader, China has a strong interest in ensuring that any regional trade arrangements it joins are compatible with the global rules.

Access to Natural Resources The last and, quite probably most important issue is access to natural

为世界上最重要的贸易实体。这使中国成为英国与美国的天然继承者，希望维护基于规则的开放贸易体系。鉴于此，中国有必要遵守该体系的所有规则与原则，并在进一步发展该体系中发挥重要作用。这提出了几个重要问题。

首先，中国可以尝试发挥一定的作用，推动漫长的多哈回合贸易谈判取得某种结果，不管多么有限。

其次，中国越来越需要保护自身的知识产权，鉴于此，确保遵守这些规则也将符合其自身利益。

第三，中国也将越来越需要保护它的对外直接投资。所以，它应该推动制定更强有力的保护外国投资规则。这是世界贸易组织(WTO)的最重要方向之一。

最后，作为全球贸易国，中国有必要确保其加入的地区贸易安排与全球规则相符。

获取自然资源

最后（也很可能最重要）的一个问题是获取自然资源。中国历史上第一次依赖工业原材

resources. China is, for the first time in history, dependent on access to imports of industrial raw materials and food. Indeed, it is already the world’s largest importer of most raw materials. Moreover, this dependence seems certain to increase. In the process, China has played the dominant role in raising the prices of these materials, 料与食品的进口。的确，它已经是世界上大多数原材料的最大进口国。此外，这种依赖似乎必定会增强。在此期间，中国在推高这些材料的价格上发挥了主要作用。这使全球相对价格出现不利于中国及其它大宗商品进口国的变化，同时造福于大宗商品出口国。

shifting global relative prices against itself and other countries dependent on commodity imports, while benefiting commodity exporters.

For China, as a resource-user and nascent superpower, policy in this area is of potentially the highest importance. It has a strong interest in generating global agreement on how best to access and manage the world’s resources. China’s immediate interest, however, is narrower: it is to gain access to the world’s resources on the most favourable terms. It has decided, quite reasonably, to use its cheap capital and labour to secure this end. That is, in itself, not only in China’s own interests, but in those of other consumers. Since resources have global prices created in global markets, any increase in supply is to the benefit of all.

Need any difficulties then arise? I can see three dangers.

First, the potential shift in relative prices might prove to be very difficult to handle. The most important commodity is oil, the world’s principal transport fuel. A technological revolution will be required. Nothing being discussed now is likely to prove sufficient.

Second, it would be helpful if a consensus could be reached about the terms of investment and trade in natural resources, comparable to the rules on other

对于中国而言，作为一个资源使用国与新生的超级大国，该领域的政策可能最为重要。中国应当从自身强大利益出发，推动达成一份有关如何最好地获取并管理世界资源的全球协议。不过，中国眼下的利益较为狭隘：以最优惠的条件获取世界上的资源。它已相当理性地决定，用其廉价的资本与劳动力来达到这一目标。这种做法本身不仅符合中国自身的利益，也符合其它国家消费者的利益。鉴于资源价格要在全球市场中确定，任何供给的增加都将造福所有人。

那么这会引发什么问题吗？我能想到三个危险。

首先，事实可能会证明，相对价格的潜在变化是一个很难处理的问题。最重要的大宗商品是石油，它是世界主要的运输用燃料。需要一场技术革命。目前各方讨论的所有方案可能都不足以解决这个问题。

第二，如果各方能就自然资源领域的投资与贸易条款——堪比世贸组织(WTO)在其它贸易领域的规则——达成共识，那将对世界产生积极影响。目标应当是确保大宗商品出口国—

aspects of trade in the World Trade

Organisation. The aim should be to ensure that commodity exporting countries – particularly poor ones, with limited governance capacity – benefit from foreign investment and exports of their natural resources. It will be immensely important for China to play a big role in —尤其是那些政府施政能力较弱的穷国——获

益于外国投资和出口其自然资源。中国应在达成此类全球协定的过程中发挥重大作用，这一点将是极其重要的。

reaching any such global agreements.

Finally, the core of any such agreement should be free trade. The great powers should agree to let prices be set in world markets, with, of course, the possibility of longer term contracts, where desirable.

Conclusion

Being huge is not altogether an

advantage. China cannot develop unnoticed and without effect on the world around it. As it grows, its impact expands

commensurately. The next two decades will, in this respect, be far more challenging than the last three. Already a great

economic power, China is likely to be the world’s largest economy, even at market prices, in not much more than a decade. Its influence on the world economy will be pervasive. Somehow, it must reconcile the imperatives of rapid development with the need to take full account of its massive and growing impact on the world as a whole. Here I have discussed four crucial aspects – finance, the monetary system, trade and natural resources. In each China will have to develop its own agenda, one that secures its principal objectives of rapid development at home and stability abroad. It will not be easy to achieve this

combination. But China has not alternative.

最后，任何此类协定的核心都应该是自由贸易。各大国应一致同意让国际市场来决定价格，当然，不排除在适宜的情况下使用中长期合同的可能性。

结论

国家庞大并不全然是一项优势。中国的发展不可能不受到关注，也不可能不对周围世界产生影响。随着中国一步步发展，它的影响也相应扩大。就此而言，未来二十年将远比过去三十年更具挑战性。目前已是经济大国的中国，很可能会在十多年之后成为世界最大的经济体——即使按市场价格衡量也是如此。它将对世界经济产生广泛的影响。它必须设法在完成快速发展使命的同时，充分考虑到自己对整个世界的巨大且与日俱增的影响。至此，我已论述了四个至关重要的方面——金融、货币体系、贸易和自然资源。中国必须在每个方面都制定自己的议程，以实现它的两个主要目标：国内快速发展，国外稳定。要同时做到这两点决非易事，但中国别无选择。

译者/何黎